Shopping and sightseeing
Vancouver, 2009
I have never claimed to be a hotshot mathematician. I always WANTED to be a hotshot mathematician, but no matter how hard I tried, I just wasn’t one. It always seemed like there was something macho about proving your point with mathematics; sometimes, I suspect, I almost would rather have been wrong – but have used flashy math - than to get it right. (No, not really, but almost.) Mostly I just used trig and calculus, and of course the arcane math of paleomagnetism that only another paleomagnetist would care a fig about. One topic I managed to keep at arm’s length for 50 years was – statistics. So now, here I am: running into statistical arguments in most of the papers I read, and not knowing what in hell they are talking about. So, I am uniquely unqualified to write the remainder of this blog – but here it comes, anyway. The topic: early detection of ovarian cancer.
As you know, my group at the Hutch is focused on the early detection of ovarian cancer, mainly using “markers” that can be measured from a blood sample. One of these markers will be familiar to most of you – CA 125. It turns out that CA 125 is another name for the protein mucin 16. (The name CA 125 came about because MUC16 was the 125th cancer antigen used in a study of a particular ovarian cancer cell line. Back in 1981.)
The title of “our” paper almost says it all: “Longitudinal Screening Algorithm That Incorporates Changes Over Time in CA 125 Levels Identifies Cancer Earlier Than a Single-Threshold Rule” It appeared in the Journal of Clinical Oncology just last month. It reports the results of a “retrospective” study of women who had been involved in the PLCO (Prostate, lung, colorectal and ovarian) Cancer Screening Trial. This was a massive effort involving nearly 80,000 women aged 55 to 79, who were followed for many years. “Retrospective” means that the medical histories of these women were known: the research then consisted of using – you guessed it - statistics to determine what test or tests would have done the best job of detecting their tumors early. By “single-threshold rule” is meant a fixed concentration of CA 125, above which further tests are recommended. The “normal” range for CA125 is 0 to 35, so an example of a single threshold rule would be to recommend ultrasound for any woman who had a concentration >35.
There is a big problem with this, if applied to the general population; there are lots of thing other than ovarian cancer that can raise the CA125 level, and among healthy women the CA125 level can vary significantly. Such a test is so low in “sensitivity” and “specificity” that the NIH, or some equally august body – I forget which – has recommended against single-threshold screening for the general population, although the method is useful in the high-risk population. ( I believe that my group at the Rivkin Center is engaged in just this sort of screening.)
So, naturally, any screen that can be tailored to the individual woman should be a big improvement – and that is precisely what my Hutch group is proposing. The tool of interest is called a “parametric empirical Baysian longitudinal algorithm.” What follows (in the paper) is a mind-glazing bit of mathematical explication, which I fail to follow. Fail miserably, in fact. (I will show the equations to my statistical drinking buddy Jay Teachman when I get home; maybe he can enlighten me.) Anyway, the PEB algorithm worked significantly better than the single-threshold test. It detected more tumors, earlier – ten months earlier on average, and at a lower CA 125 level. Ten months isn’t much, but it could give the oncologist a head start.. What is needed, of course, is a test that spots a cancer case at the moment it first protrudes its ugly little head. And then, a way to kill it.
There seems to be a competing method called ROCA, which codes for Risk of Ovarian Cancer algorithm. I gather that it, too, is more sensitive than the single threshold method, but diligent Googling so far has failed to reveal to me how it works*. Maybe somebody can enlighten me.
And so, yeah, this was a dull blog, and overlong to boot. I needed an excuse to post another picture. The weather here today was mid-70s, sunny, light breeze. How was it where you are?
*However, see my Comment, below